In John Carpenters 1978 thriller Halloween, Sheriff Leigh Brackett says to Dr. Sam Loomis; “I have a feeling that you’re way off on this” speaking about the killer Michael Myers. Dr. Loomis warns the Sheriff; “You have the wrong feeling.” When it comes to T-SPLOST we should heed Dr. Loomis’ warning. T-SPLOST is not what you think it is.
I urge everyone to go to the Georgia Mountains Region 2 Final Constrained Project List. The GDOT forecasts that Forsyth County will collect just under $300.0 million dollars in taxes over the ten years T-SPLOST is in effect. GDOT will return around $40.0 million in discretionary funds to Forsyth County, which shorts the taxpayers 11% or near $33.0 million over 10 years. Still there will be some value from the non-discretionary TIA projects.
Forsyth County has 21 TIA projects valued at $253.3 million with GDOT cost estimates of $327.0 million. This is a ($73.7 million) shortfall that must be made up by local taxes or money from other counties dropped projects. If Forsyth County has all projects funded only 77.46% is paid by the T-SPLOST tax. This shortfall can be filled with Debt Bonding by the Commissioners of the discretionary funds or GDOT deleting projects from the list. Most likely early projects will drop out, because collected monies will not adequately build-up until later years. Let’s look at the monies and projects in the three phases for Forsyth County.
Phase 1: Ten projects are due to start in years 2013-2015 with a value of $46.0 million. However the GDOT’s cost estimate is $78.8, which is ($32.8 million) short.
Phase 2: Five projects are due to start in the years 2016-2019 with a value of $50.2 million. However the GDOT’s cost estimate is $66.2, which is ($16.0) short.
Phase 3: Six projects are due to start in the years 2020-2022 with a value of $156.8. However the GDOT’s cost estimate is $181.5 million, which is ($24.7 million) short.
Keep in mind Forsyth County’s contributes to the $12,527,872 fee GDOT will take off-the-top region-wide to manage the programs.
(See Figure 2 – Chart of Money Flows)
This is the point where your nightmare begins!
Phase 1 – In the years 2013 to 2015 GDOT predicts Forsyth County will collect $8.0 million in discretionary monies and $43.6 million for TIA projects. [Note: You can't count 2015 in Phase 1, because it takes the entire year to collect those monies.] That’s $56.1 million for ten projects costing $78.7 million. That is ($22.6 million) short to complete the first ten projects in Phase 1.
This is where you wake up in your nightmare!
Phase 2 – In the years 2016-2019 we can now add-in 2015 monies collected. The GDOT estimates Forsyth County will collect $16.0 million in discretionary monies and $65.4 million for TIA projects. That’s $81.4 million for projects costing $66.2 million in project costs. This means you have a surplus for projects in Phase 2 of $15.2 million.
This is where you are wide awake in your nightmare!
Phase 3 – In the years 2020-2023 Forsyth County collects $20.0 million in discretionary monies and $87.2 million in TIA for projects. That is $107.2 million for projects costing <sit down please> $181.5 million. That means you are short ($74.3 million) for Phase 3. GDOT will drop projects.
This is a whopping shortfall of ($81.7 million) for all ten years from both discretionary funds and non-discretionary TIA projects.
The Board of County Commissioners is either going to Bond discretionary funds and issue debt for the shortfall to finish all projects, or the GDOT is going to drop projects. Forsyth County has little say on what projects GDOT decides to drop. Your tax collections will go to another county and you will need another ten years of T-SPLOST from a new project list, if you want those projects finished.
As I said wide awake in your worst nightmare.
Aye matey! It’s vote like a Pirate day on July 31, 2012. This is the day that Georgians will go to the polls to impose a 1% sales tax on themselves called T-SPLOST. The problem is many votes will not count for much if you live in a small county within your region.
The Georgia Constitution is quite remarkable in that it allows for “Home Rule” or county self-determination. On page 67 Article IX. Section I. Paragraph IV. SECTION II. HOME RULE FOR COUNTIES AND MUNICIPALITIES, Paragraph I, Home rule for counties states;
“(a) The governing authority of each county shall have legislative power to adopt clearly reasonable ordinances, resolutions, or regulations relating to its property, affairs, and local government for which no provision has been made by general law and which is not inconsistent with this Constitution or any local law applicable thereto.”
This simple paragraph reflects the respect the Georgia legislature had for the differences of the people in local jurisdictions. It allows them to govern themselves without the heavy-hand of the Gold Dome. It has been that way since Franklin and Washington counties were created on 25 February 1784. All 159 counties are chartered by the State Legislature and given the same “Home Rule” rights. The Regional vote scheme used for T-SPLOST completely dismantles “Home Rule” and disenfranchises thousands of voters. There are many including State Rep. Ed Setzler, R-Acworth that believe the Regional vote violates the Georgia Constitution.
T-SPLOST lumps counties into Georgia’s 12 Regions set up in the early 1970′s during the Carter administration to deliver social services. The mission of the Georgia Association of Regions is;“To advance the efforts of Georgia’s twelve Regional Commissions as efficient and effective service provision organizations for local governments and related state and federal programs in the areas of planning, economic development, transportation, information technology and human services.” There is no need to balance the population in these regions if you are delivering services.
There is no need to re draw and proportionally balance the population in the Regions as we do all congressional districts, state house districts, senate districts, and county commission districts every ten years. This means there are counties of high density of population and counties with very few people. This creates a terrible problem for the smaller rural counties as their votes mean very little in a Regional vote.
Those smaller more rural counties will have their votes canceled out by the larger counties. That is not the case in congressional districts and state house districts, because the voting districts are balanced proportionally for population changes.
Take as an example Region 2 – Georgia Mountains Region. If you look at the actual numbers of registered voters that voted in the July primary of 2010 a different picture begins to emerge. Eighty four thousand nine hundred and twenty four people voted or 29.31%. Assuming the exact number of people turn-out it means 50.1% or 42,547 voters can pass TSPLOST in the region. Forsyth, Hall, and Union counties accounted for 51,386 or 60% of the votes in Region 2. If 83% of the voters in Forsyth, Hall, and Union vote YES, all other counties can’t vote it down. Now we know 83% are not going to vote YES; let’s say that 60% of all voters in Forsyth, Hall, and Union vote YES, it will take 67.6% of voters in all other counties to vote NO to vote it down. The numbers are below.
It is apparent that small rural counties suffer some form of disenfranchisement; especially when you ask them to muster 67.6% NO votes. If you live in a rural county with a small population you really don’t get a fair proportional representation and there is no county opt-out clause. Your entire county may not want this tax, but it will be forced upon you. Likewise, you may want this in your small county, but Forsyth, Hall, and Union can vote it down and you get nothing. This is not in the spirit of “Home Rule” and could possibly result in lawsuits over the constitutionality of the Regional vote. There should have been a county opt-out clause. One hundred percent of the legislature supported a county opt-out clause, but the Republican leadership and the sponsors of the Bill successfully blocked an up/down vote.
There is plenty of loot in Piracy. Vote NO T-SPLOST.
